The Biggest Market Risk Right Now According to Daniel Lacalle
Investors have been riding a wave of easy money. The “synchronized global recovery” was the tide that lifted all boats. It’s over.
The video above features an excerpt from that broader interview in which Lacalle describes what he sees as “the biggest risk in markets right now.” Also, below is a brief transcript from this video.
Keith McCullough: What do you think is the biggest risk in macro?
For me the biggest risk is that the dollar is the new VIX. In other words, if the dollar were to go up meaningfully here I think that would catch a lot of investors offsides.
What do you think the biggest risk is in global macro right now?
Daniel Lacalle: I think that the biggest risk is that what we have right now is a big bet on synchronized growth. But synchronized growth is being driven by synchronized debt. So debt is the key factor here.
The moment that we have an uptick in the perception of risk in fixed income, Emerging Markets or in growth economies you can see that reverse rather quickly. It could be driven by a slowdown in China or a combination of factors.
This is what people tend to forget. The unwinding of that trade can happen rather quickly. We saw it in ’95-’97 and we saw it in 2007-2008. When it unwinds, it unwinds fast. That’s why we have to consistently look at the drivers that either cement or negate what’s driving the trade and prepare accordingly.